A new modeling study projects more chronic infections if the first hepatitis B vaccine dose moves past birth — projections, not outcomes.
By The Wellness Desk — CelebnMusic247
A new U.S. modeling study is projecting what could happen if the first hepatitis B vaccine dose for newborns is delayed or skipped. Per Healthline, the study was published in the Annals of Internal Medicine on Oct. 20, and its findings are projections from a model — estimates of what might occur under different scenarios, not infections that have been observed.
What the Study Projected
Per Healthline, the study projected that delaying the first hepatitis B vaccine dose to 2 months of age could increase chronic infections among infants by 19% under one scenario.
Under scenarios involving delaying or omitting the birth dose, per Healthline, the projected increases in chronic infections ranged much higher — by 83% to 225%, depending on vaccine uptake. Healthline also reported the researchers estimated that up to 1.8 million young adults could remain susceptible to hepatitis B by age 20 under shared decision making, compared with 232,000 under universal birth dosing.
Healthline was clear about the nature of these numbers, and this article will be too: they are model-based projections rather than verified outcomes, and actual results will depend on vaccination rates and other factors, per Healthline.
The Policy Change Behind the Study
The study arrives after a change in federal guidance. Per Healthline, in December 2025 the CDC ended its universal recommendation for hepatitis B vaccination at birth for infants whose mothers test negative for the virus, shifting instead to individual-based clinical decision making between parents and healthcare professionals. Under that approach, per Healthline, the first dose can be given at birth or deferred until the baby is 2 months old.
Infants born to mothers who test positive for hepatitis B, or whose infection status is unknown, should still receive the hepatitis B vaccine and hepatitis B immune globulin (HBIG) within 12 hours of birth, per the updated guidelines reported by Healthline.
The American Academy of Pediatrics, by contrast, still recommends universal vaccination within 24 hours of birth, followed by additional doses during infancy, per Healthline.
Why Infancy Matters in This Reporting
Per Healthline, hepatitis B is a viral infection that affects the liver, and up to 90% of infants infected during their first year of life develop chronic infection. Over time, per Healthline, chronic infection can lead to cirrhosis, liver failure or liver cancer.
Experts quoted by Healthline pointed to the vaccine’s track record. “The hepatitis B vaccines have several decades of history and have been proven safe and effective,” said Dr. Graham Tse, a pediatrician and chief medical officer of MemorialCare Miller Children’s & Women’s Hospital in Long Beach, California, per Healthline. “There has been no new data or evidence presented or uncovered to support delaying the newborn dose of hepatitis B.”
Dr. Tse also told Healthline that differing recommendations have left some parents confused, and that confusion can lead to reduced vaccination rates. This article reports the study, the guidance and the expert comments as Healthline published them only, and is not medical advice; questions about an individual baby’s schedule belong with that family’s pediatrician.
The 247 Take — The careful way to read this study is in its own terms: it is a forecast built on assumptions about uptake, published to inform a live policy debate — not a count of children harmed. What is not in dispute in the reporting is the disagreement itself, with the CDC’s individual-based approach on one side and the AAP’s universal birth-dose recommendation on the other.
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Sources: Healthline
